Exploring analytical, simulation-based, and hybrid model structures for multivariate crash frequency modeling
نویسندگان
چکیده
In safety literature, there are two ways to incorporate the potential correlation between multiple crash frequency variables: (1) simulation-based approach and (2) analytical closed-form approach. The current research effort undertakes a comparison multivariate model copula based analyze zonal level counts for different types. Further, builds on earlier models by incorporating random parameters thus proposing hybrid (combination of simulation system) unobserved heterogeneity. Within proposed model, empirical analysis involves estimation count using four structures which cover wide range dependency structures, including radial symmetry asymmetry, asymptotic tail independence dependence. best authors’ knowledge, this study is first its kind attribute variability (random parameters) effect within framework. traffic zone (TAZ) data both motorized non-motorized crashes from Central Florida year 2016. A comprehensive set exogenous variables roadway, built environment, land-use, traffic, socio-demographic spatial spillover characteristics considered analysis. resulting fit prediction performance offered clearly highlights – Random Parameter Copula approach’s superiority over purely in our context. exercise further augmented undertaking an in-depth events across types correct classification estimated results reinforce improved Copula-based applicability hot spot identification illustrated generating plots identifying high-crash low- zones type region.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Analytic Methods in Accident Research
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2213-6665', '2213-6657']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2021.100167